Month: March 2012

The Impossibility of Economic Prediction

We put far too much stake in what economists say.  Even economists will tell you that. Too often, we treat their forecasts like precise predictions.  They’re not accurate enough to rise to what could be called predictive.  A decent economist can make a reasonably accurate statement about the economic affairs right now, but go out

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10 Year Treasury Yield Validates Improving Economy, Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note validates the thesis that the economy is stealthily improving, the market’s rally is justified, and expectations have been too low. Higher yields this week are attributable to Bernanke’s comments and the continued flow of improved economic measures. Investors in Treasuries are selling them in deference to the expectation

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We Dodged A Big Fat Greek Bullet

We’re eating lamb gyros at Valentine Ventures on the news that Greek debt holders have agreed to swap their old debt for new debt at 31.5 cents on the dollar.  Since recording this Market Message, it has triggered a “credit event”, but more importantly, it removes a short-term obstacle from the European quagmire.  Our market

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