The Blog

The Market Is Like A Petulant Child

This week, the Federal Reserve continued its strategy of giving very advanced warning that its extraordinary easy policy will eventually be wound down, as we discussed in our “Market Message” on May 31, “The Worm Has Turned.”  This is fundamentally good news. It affirms the Fed’s awareness of the need to stop bond buying, and

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Bernanke’s Hurt Locker

There is no more important issue facing our economy, indeed the world’s economies, and the future performance of the markets than the reversal in Fed policy that will happen over the next several years.  The stakes couldn’t be higher. Do too much, put us into contraction.  Do too little, create inflation. For now, the duty

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The Worm Has Turned

A few days ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke took what I believe to be the first step in ending Quantitative Easing (the massive money creation / bond buying program dating to the depths of the Financial Crisis).  Chairman Bernanke’s seemingly subtle mention that the Fed will stop easing if the economy continues on its current

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Sell In May and Go Away? Pffffft!

Investing is complex.  It stymies even the most seasoned investor.  In order to create meaning from the randomness, investors sometimes employ mental shortcuts known as “heuristics.” A perfect example is the adage, “Sell in May and Go Away.”  This advice suggests that investors exit the market every year before Summer, and reenter by December, to

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I Could Be A Great Scammer

In this “Confessions…” Bill Valentine talks about his obsession with Financial Scammers.  But don’t worry, he’s doesn’t aspire to be one, but rather, wants you to give thought to the conditions that create the opportunity for this timeless transgression. Watch to learn about to look for so that you won’t be the next victim of

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The Next Bubble Is Here!! The New Bubble Is…

We have a history of alerting investors to bubbles and on that credibility we offer that there is a massive bubble forming right now.  In fact, it’s the most important bubble impacting investors, and the public as a whole.  It’s very easy and understandable to see where it came from. But it’s here now, looms

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Market Dip? It’s Much Ado About Nuttin’ (honey)

The stock market’s forward progress this year seems to have hit a speed bump.  Naturally, the question becomes, “Is this something to worry about?” The answer can be found by looking at why investors behave the way they do, the proper framing of the last few days, and what real changes there have been (or

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The Opposite Of Down Is Not Up

Two weeks ago, Bill Valentine explained that just because the Market was hitting a new high, it didn’t portend an imminent decline. In other words, just because the Market’s “up” doesn’t mean it will have to be “down” soon. When the Market’s not hitting new highs, it can be setting back a bit, or moving

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Stocks Hitting New Highs…..Sell Now?

With the S&P 500 hitting new All Time High levels, there is a growing chorus calling for the next big decline. It’s understandable…most investors are pessimistic and indeed fearful from what they’ve endured over the last 13 years.  We only had one period after 2000 where the Market was hitting New Highs, and that only

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Bonds Are Not In A Bubble

It seems everywhere you turn, someone’s using the term “bubble” to describe the bond market. Google “bond bubble” and you get 18.4 million references (and increasing daily!). Yet, to call the bond market a bubble is to misuse the term. Grossly. This week we remind you of the necessary components of a bubble, and use

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