The Blog

Is This a New Bear Market….Or Something Else?

With volatility up and investors looking for any kind of perspective, what should you make of the stock market of late?  Is this the start of the next Bear Market (and thus the end of the 2.5 year old Bull Market)?  Or is it something else.  If you look at the other Bear Markets of

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Stock Market Update – Shifting from BULLISH to NEUTRAL

The US stock market, as the preeminent global growth market and a proxy for all risk assets, has shown signs of the potential for a prolonged and material deterioration, owing to signs that US economic growth is faltering. On Project Syndicate, Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, observes that “the

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Debt Ceiling: Are Big Corporations and the Rich Paying Their Fair Share?

President Obama, speaking on the budgetary impasse, suggested that corporations and the rich pay their fair share.  This old saw of the class warfare guerrillas has a nice ring to it…but just how much is enough to rise to the level of “fairness”?  And are they paying a smaller share or a bigger share than

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The 3 Biggest Lies About the U.S. Dollar

  Fringe theories get more followers in the Information Age.  When a little economic knowledge combines with pessimism and conspiracy-theory, popular themes emerge.  One of them surrounds the U.S. dollar—and the views are just too far afield from reality today. Following are the three biggest, and oft cited, lies about the dollar. #1) THE DOLLAR

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Debt Ceiling 2011: President Obama and US Congress Should Avoid Creating An Economic Crisis

There has been much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth around the debt ceiling and budget agreement in 2011.  Will President Obama and the US Congress raise the ceiling in time?  How important is it, anyway?  And what’s the right solution to avoid creating an economic crisis? Manu Raju of Politico says, “The Senate

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Everything You Need to Know About Inflation In Ten Charts

It seems everyone has an opinion on inflation these days.  Some say we currently have high inflation.  Others say we are actually in a state of deflation. Still more say we’re on the verge of Hyperinflation. So who’s right?  None of those folks. The fact is, and as these charts will show, we have a

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How To Respond To a Wall Street Correction; 2011 Money Portfolio

Bill Valentine, founder of Valentine Ventures, LLC, shares three important investment tips to consider during a stock market correction.  A stock market correction can range anywhere from 5 to 20%. Anything beyond 20% would be considered a bear market. The first tip Bill discusses references an earlier blog post of his titled  “Trust Your Instincts, 

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The Real State of Real Estate in Bend

Last week, I gave a talk to a local realty company and thought I’d share my presentation.  The point was that if you judge the state of real estate solely by median price or default numbers, you only get half the picture. Here in Bend (the poster child for the Real Estate Bubble), our transactions

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Hyperinflation….or High Inflation?

Hyperinflation or high inflation? What is the difference?  Bill Valentine, CIO and founder of Valentine Ventures, shares his insight on the difference between hyperinflation and high inflation. Investors are always concerned about high inflation as an economic risk. Bill says if we were faced with a hyperinflation scenario,  the only way to protect yourself would

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“Outcome X” Would Spawn a Million (Economic) Harold Campings

I so badly want to believe that our country’s only way out of our debt mess is some combination of economic implosion, hyperinflation, dollar debasement, and default.  I really do.  It would serve my purpose and validate many of my views. I’m a fiscal conservative.  I believe our President’s economic policy is profoundly reckless.  I

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