One of the most dangerous set-ups with investing is when you find yourself not questioning your beliefs. By accepting as fact your current predictions about the future, you leave yourself vulnerable to that which you can’t conceive. No mind can adequately factor in all outcomes with investing.
This week, we look at the idea of the “Secular Bear Cycle,” and the precept that for the Cycle to be completed, we must see a single-digit valuation for the stock market. As an adherent to the Secular Cycle thesis, we’re especially challenged to think of reasons why this Cycle may NOT end in a single-digit valuation for stocks.
We put out a White Paper in 2005 espousing the Secular trend and need for a capitulatory trough where stocks were abandoned as part of how the next Secular Bull Market is born. But must this be the case, as many seem to put forth? Might the mind be seeking a pattern that may not be as firm as suggested?
Take a look at where we’ve been, and give thought to the outrageous contention that 2008 may have been the start of the new Cycle. Maybe yes…maybe no…but at least ponder it.